The Impact of the Consumer Confidence Index and CDS Premium on the Industrial Production Index: Evidence from Türkiye
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63556/ankad.v10i3.461Keywords:
Industrial Production Index, Consumer Confidence Index, CDS PremiumAbstract
Industrial production is one of the most important indicators of a country's macroeconomic power. Similarly, CDS premiums, which reflect a country's global competitiveness, and the consumer confidence index (CCI), one of the key indicators of social welfare, are among the most scrutinized data by economists. The aim of this study is to analyse the impact of the CCI and CDS premium on the industrial production index (IPI) in Türkiye, using monthly data from 2012:01 to 2025:12. Türkiye was chosen as an example because, due to its geopolitical location, it is affected by financial and political shocks in both Europe and the Middle East. Firstly, the natural logarithm of the series was calculated, and then its stationarity was analyzed. After structural break unit root tests. Both Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration tests were applied to cross-check the results. The empirical findings from two-variable analyses differ from those based on three-variable models. This has shown that bivariate relationships are insufficient to explain complex economies like Türkiye's, and that the financial system as a whole need to be evaluated. According to the analysis, rather than attempting to boost consumer confidence to stimulate production, pursuing policies that lower borrowing costs will yield faster results.
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